20 June 2025
Analytics produced by Allocation Strategy were featured in the Unhedged series in the Financial Times this week. Michael Chin outlines what option markets are pricing in terms of further oil price increases. FT Unhedged used option-implied probabilities to analyse oil markets, following rapidly unfolding news in the Middle East. The link to the article can be found here.
"The options markets quantifies how investors see the risk of an oil price jump. Here is his chart of option-implied probabilities (the vertical axis) of Brent crude prices (horizontal axis), from before Israel’s attack began and then on Monday"
The chart from the article is reproduced below. Option-implied distributions are produced for a range of asset classes as part of our Market-implied Macro solution.
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